This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Minnesota. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a lot of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. In addition they possess a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. There are only 14 more chairs remaining so there won’t be far more time to be eligible if you are attempting to. I will attempt to receive my 3rd seat this week to maximum it if I can. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will likely take a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I like Gordon to get the win this weekend and he will be a cash game play of mine . There are far better fights to target when we are on the lookout for 1st round knockouts but I will be focusing more on people in GPPs. I like the ground and the ceiling of Gordon here and that’s exactly why he is the cash play of the week. I really don’t think Moret has got the power to actually examine the chin of Gordon’s that has seemed to be his biggest weakness recently. With the speed Gordon sets I presume he has 100+ upside in a decision win and I don’t see him getting completed here so he ought to have a solid floor. I think his flooring in a win is likely 80+ also that is completely fine for money games. This is a tricky feeble, but this is my personal preferred money game place of this week.
GPP play of the week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I had to go with Ngannou here. If he wins it is most likely that a 1st round knockout. Which is +100 about the betting line. If he gets that 1st round KO, then he scores over 100 DK points and at his $8.8k salary which will put him on the 25k lineup. He will be quite chalky this week though so make sure you load up on him if you’re multi-entering if you would like to get leverage over the field. I really do think JDS is a live underdog here too, so I will be targeting both sides of this struggle, but I really do see 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here which can beat a good deal of the fighters priced over him.
Underdog drama of the week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I truly don’t love this card this week since I am not choosing any actual underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only guy who would be regarded as an underdog I think will win and I did pick him outright and put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we’re getting him $200 less than Greene but that I wouldn’t be surprised if Albini was the favorite on the betting line moving into the fights. With these men being Heavyweights, it does not take much to get a knockout and if Albini can do this at $8k he can give me a rush at the perfect lineup.
Fade of the week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her preceding fight as well and she burnt me scoring a 1st round submission. I’m going back to the fade here though and trusting the same doesn’t happen. On a card where I am picking basically each favorite, I would rather select the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire at her 8.5k price tag. I am not certain that going into the floor is in her best interest in this fight and if she stays standing I do not see her paying off value in a win. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I would be taking some shots on Whitmire, however that I will probably only make ~20 and she will not make my participant pool with that many lineups.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 83-52 to get +251.89un (+$25,421) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
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